Publishing Predictions: New York Replaced By Cyberspace

There is a new class of authors developing today. The class is characterized by the author who can write commercially viable books and has the marketing savvy to find readers for those books. Oh yeah, they also publish their books themselves. No longer does self-publishing mean the last hope of subpar work that has been rejected. The self-publishing world is being divided into two distinct groups:

1. Authors who are good at what they do

2. Authors who are not good at what they do

People, especially the book buying public, are starting to find the good ones. Based on this new reality, I have made a few predictions that ultimately moves the center of the publishing universe away from New York and into Cyberspace. Here are four publishing predictions that I see for the near future:

1. Publishers will continue to find their own talent, but a paradigm shift will take place that frees them up to aggressively comb through the self publishing titles in print that shows promise for commercial success and bring those titles into their distribution system. In fact, self published authors will end up making up the lion's share of the books published by traditional publishers. By adapting this way, their success rate at finding profitable books will become less and less dismal and more and more profitable. (According to Jan B. King of eWomen Publishing Network, between 70% and 90% of traditionally published books do not break even.)

2. Bookstores will sharply decrease their shelf space and cater to the reading experience. They will no longer return books; rather, books will be printed on site as customers order them. The new technology that exists for print on demand will be available in each store. The terrible, money wasting book return system of today will go the way of the dinosaurs.

3. Newspaper book reviewers will reinvent themselves. With major papers dropping book reviews, the reviewers who survive will find a new way to bring value to the book reader. They will have to do more than give stars to a book; readers are finding their favorite reviewers online. Print reviewers who weather the current storm will do so by going out and finding the diamonds among the many self-published works. Book reviewers who consistently find the best "hidden" books and bring them to the public's eyes will be the ones who create a strong following and have longevity in this new order.

4. Agents will probably be the most nimble to adapt when the time comes. The best ones will develop systems of finding the self-published books with the most commercial promise. Because of their expertise, the relationship they have with the New York publishers will strengthen as they become valuable assets to the publishers who embrace this new publishing order.

These are my predictions for the publishing industry. The new reality is here. Those who see it, and adapt will prosper. Those who don't will die. What does this mean to authors who self publish? It means that your future is in your hands. If you have a dream to be published by a New York publisher, it will become more doable as time goes by. It also means that it's no longer only a matter of whether you are self published or traditionally published; it's also a matter of whether you are self-marketed or not.

It means you must create a commercially viable book. No trash; no error-riddled text; no poorly written text. It is incumbent upon you to do what it takes to make sure your book is of the exacting quality to sit on a bookstore shelf now. If not, then not much will change for you when these changes do arrive.

It will be interesting to see how the future plays out. One thing is for sure, self publishing is no longer a method to be looked down upon and despised anymore. It's here, it's the future, and for those currently in the publishing industry, it will force them to look for ways to embrace the technology and use it for their own economic survival.

Tony Eldridge